Filipinos are preparing for The 'Big One'
UPDATE March 2026
I know exactly what a 6.7 magnitude earthquake feels like
from the inside.
On the night of February 10, 2017, at exactly 10:03 in the
evening, the ground beneath Surigao City snapped. I was here. The shaking
lasted less than a minute but felt like it was never going to stop. In an
instant, bridges cracked, walls collapsed, and the city I live and work in
looked like a system that had completely crashed — no warning, no graceful
shutdown, just a hard failure at the hardware level.
Six people died. Hundreds were injured. And just three weeks
later, on March 5, another 5.6 magnitude quake rocked the same area before the
dust had even settled from the first one.
I tell you this not to scare you, but because I want you to
understand — this is not a theoretical topic for me. I am not writing about
earthquakes the way a journalist writes about a war they've never seen. I felt
the walls shake. I ran outside not knowing if the building behind me was going
to follow.
And if that was a 6.7, I genuinely do not want to think
about what The Big One will feel like.
What Exactly Is "The Big One"?
The term "The Big One" refers to a catastrophic
earthquake that scientists and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and
Seismology (PHIVOLCS) have long warned could be triggered by the West Valley
Fault — a 100-kilometer fault line that runs directly through Metro Manila
and surrounding provinces.
PHIVOLCS estimates that when the West Valley Fault moves, it
could generate a magnitude 7.2 earthquake or stronger. To put that in
perspective: the Surigao quake that stopped my heart in 2017 was 6.7. Each full
point on the Richter scale represents roughly 31 times more energy released. A
7.2 would be in a completely different category.
The fault last ruptured in 1658 — over 360 years ago. The
average interval between major ruptures is estimated at 400 years. We are, in
geological terms, approaching the due date.
PHIVOLCS has modeled what a West Valley Fault event could
look like for Metro Manila: potentially over 35,000 deaths, nearly 114,000
injured, and damage to more than 170,000 structures. Dozens of hospitals could
be rendered non-operational. Water and power infrastructure would likely fail
across large areas.
This is not fearmongering. This is what the science says.
Why Surigao Is Part of This Conversation
People often think of The Big One as exclusively a Metro
Manila problem because of the West Valley Fault. But what my city went through
in 2017 is a reminder that destructive earthquakes in the Philippines are not
limited to any one fault or region.
The Philippines sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire —
one of the most seismically active zones on the planet. We have over 300 fault
systems across the archipelago. Surigao del Norte alone sits near several
active faults. The 2017 sequence we experienced was traced to a local fault
near San Francisco, Anao-aon — not even one of the country's most talked-about
fault lines.
The lesson is not that you should panic based on where you
live. The lesson is that preparedness is a nationwide conversation, not
just a Metro Manila one.
What To Actually Do: A Practical Preparedness Guide
I am an IT professional. My job is to design systems that
don't fail — and when they do fail, to have a recovery plan ready before the
failure happens. Earthquake preparedness is the same logic applied to your
household.
Here is how I think about it:
Before the Ground Shakes — Build Your Recovery Plan Now
The biggest mistake most Filipino households make is
treating preparedness as something to think about after a disaster
happens. That is like waiting for your hard drive to crash before you back up
your files. By then, it is too late.
Every household should have a go-bag ready with at minimum
three days of water (at least one liter per person per day), non-perishable
food, a first aid kit, flashlights and extra batteries, copies of important
documents in a waterproof pouch, cash in small bills, and a basic list of
emergency contacts written on paper — not just saved in your phone, which may
not survive or charge.
Identify in advance the safest spots in every room of your
home. In most cases that means under a solid table, against an interior wall
away from windows, or in a sturdy doorframe of a load-bearing wall. Know where
your gas shutoff valve is and how to turn it off.
During the Shaking — The Protocol That Can Save Your Life
The standard protocol is Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Drop to
your hands and knees. Get under a sturdy table or desk if one is nearby. If
not, cover your head and neck with your arms. Hold on until the shaking
completely stops.
If you are indoors, stay there. Research consistently shows
that the most dangerous thing you can do during an earthquake is run outside —
that is when people get hit by falling glass, debris, and collapsing facades.
Do not use elevators under any circumstances.
If you are outdoors, move away from buildings, power lines,
and street lights and stay in the open until the shaking ends.
If you are in a vehicle, pull over safely away from
overpasses, bridges, and utility lines and stay inside with your seatbelt on.
After the Shaking Stops — The Recovery Boot Sequence
Check yourself and others for injuries before moving around.
Be aware that aftershocks can follow the main quake, sometimes within minutes,
and can be nearly as strong. When it is safe to exit, do so carefully and watch
for structural damage. Do not re-enter a building that shows signs of damage
until it has been inspected.
If you smell gas, do not switch any lights or appliances on
or off. Get out immediately and report it. Stick to official information
sources — PHIVOLCS and your local government unit — rather than social media,
which will be flooded with misinformation in the immediate aftermath. I learned
this the hard way in 2017.
The System Is Overdue for an Upgrade
I spend my days patching systems, monitoring network health,
and making sure things do not fail without warning. The irony is that the most
critical system I should be maintaining — my own household's disaster readiness
— is one most of us put off indefinitely.
The West Valley Fault will move again. It is not a question
of if. Surigao will shake again. That is not pessimism — that is just what
living on the Ring of Fire means.
What you can control is whether your family has a plan, a
kit, and the knowledge to survive those first 72 hours on their own before help
arrives. That window is everything.
Start today. Even one small step — buying a flashlight,
filling a jug of water, having a five-minute conversation with your family
about where to meet if you get separated — is a system upgrade that could
matter more than anything else you do this week.
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